Economic Predictions for 2009

Predictions about the year ahead from three investors who are almost always right – Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, and Karl Denninger.

Here’s Peter Schiff:


Jim Rogers:


Karl Denninger:

Where We Are, Where We’re Heading (2009)

We keep hearing so-called “pundits” talk about how “we must spend like mad or we will have a Depression.”  Folks, that die was cast in 2001 when the decision to avoid a recession by pulling forward demand through excessive debt.  It is no longer possible to avoid the outcome, we can only choose when the outcome occurs, and the longer we wait to do it the worse it will be as a direct consequence of the fact that in all modern monetary systems money issued by the government is in fact debt and the problem is that we have too much debt already!

FDR has been widely hailed as a hero.  He was no such thing.  FDR’s policies in fact caused a second wave of depression after the original downdraft that originated in 1929.  This is not commonly reported but it is in fact true – there was a second, nearly 20% contraction in GDP that occurred as a direct consequence of FDR’s policies.  Repeating what FDR did to any material degree will not help, and any apparent “relief” will be false.

In short, as pointed out in The Ticker of the 20th – We are all Madoff in one form or another.

Continue reading…


And one more “predictions” article about the year ahead for technology …

10 things that won’t survive the recession

 By Mike Elgan

December 23, 2008
The government says we’ve been in a recession for the past year. Experts say it’ll be at least another year before it’s over. And everybody says it’s the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.
Nice sound bite. What does that mean?

Who knows? We can be sure that this downturn will differ totally from the Depression, and also different from the many recessions we’ve suffered every decade or every other decade since the ’30s. I’m not an economist or a historian, but it seems to me that this recession will be something unprecedented.

One reason is that that there was no Internet or mobile technology in the 1930s. That means individual people and companies have very low-cost, high-efficiency alternatives for doing a wide range of activities. That will accelerate the demise of those things fated to be replaced anyway.

Here are 10 things that I believe won’t survive the recession.

1. Free tech support
The practice still employed by some companies of paying humans to answer phones and solve technical problems with hardware or software purchased for consumers will become a thing of the past. PCs, laptops, and hardware peripherals, as well as application software — these categories will be purchased like airline tickets, with price becoming the sole criteria for many buyers. In order to compete on price, companies who now offer real tech support will replace it with message boards (users helping users), wikis, wizards, software-based troubleshooting tools, and other unsatisfying alternatives.

2. Wi-Fi you have to pay for
Everyone is going to share the cost of public Wi-Fi because the penny-pinching public will gravitate to places that offer “free” Wi-Fi. Companies that charge extra for Wi-Fi will see their iPhone, BlackBerry, and netbook-toting customers — i.e., everybody — taking business elsewhere. The only place you’ll pay for Wi-Fi will be on an airplane.

3. Landline phones
Digital phone bundles for homes (where TV, home networking, and landline phone service are offered in a total package) will keep the landline idea alive for a while, but as millions of households drop their cable TV services and as consumers look to cut all needless costs, the trend toward dropping landline service in favor of cell phone service only will accelerate until it’s totally mainstream, and only grandma still has a landline phone.

4. Movie rental stores
The idea of retail stores where you drive there, pick a movie, stand in line, and drive home with it will become a quaint relic of the new fin de siecle (look it up!). The new old way to get movies will be discs by mail, and the new, new way will be downloading.

Continue reading…


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